10 things that will really NOT happen in the future.
It’s summer. A hot season for all kinds of nonsense news, and various top listings to be circulated (most recent: 5 reasons for Facebook to fail, 5 reasons for Chrome OS to fail, why most app stores will fail). All sorts of "insiders", "specialists" and "analysts" are popping up and setting the world straight. Many of them don't have a clue. Today I read one too many of “what will happen in the future” articles, and had to get the frustration out of my system. So, I'm copying the popular method and presenting my tongue-in-cheek (yet half-serious) list of 10 things that will really not be happening in the future. 4 REAL!!!
1. Humanoid robots will not be taking care of children or elderly
Some sci-fi fans are obsessed with robots and jump up and down with joy every time there’s a prototype of a robot that looks like a human, can talk, and is designed to do human things like take care of elderly, or teach children at school. Now, place your right hand on your heart and give an honest answer: Would you be willing to send your 7 year old to a classroom with 50-100 other kids to be efficiently taught by a robot that looks like Ms. Elementary teacher, but is all electric circuits and wires? That’s what I thought, too.
Did the robot dog stop kids from having a real puppy? No it didn’t. It takes a real living furry puppy to do what puppies are meant to do. Equally, it takes a real living teacher or a caretaker to listen, understand and provide love for kids and old folks.
Robots are useful, and they will replace a lot of the mechanical work that people do. No human should be locked to a conveyor belt, or work in mines or any other hazardous work. That should and will be done by robots. This will free humans to be doing what is the human thing to do: To love and take care of one another.
2. People will not get more intelligent because of technology
There was a nice article today (thanks David) about how a super volcano Toba erupted 74,000 years ago and wiped out most people. The article claims that we are the offspring of the survivors, that’s why our DNA is so similar and why we are smarter than other primates. This may be so. But the article also suggests that a second wave of intelligence is rushing in, because of our ability to collect and analyze information.
“Our collective ability to gather, store and build upon knowledge — call it Google et al. — is creating You+, Jamais Cascio reasons. What we need now are better tools to analyze the information we have, he notes, and then we can move on to that higher primate we're bound to become.”
Does someone – a scientist – really believe that humans will evolve into a higher primate because we can spend our days online. Well good luck with that.
Instead, what will happen is that we will be able to make smarter choices, perhaps not destroy the planet’s environment, not kill civilians at war, to have clean water for all, and not end up with a pandemic that kills us all. But that doesn’t grow our brain any bigger, accelerate evolution, affect our DNA or make us any “higher primates”.
(Or perhaps this was a test to see if the story would fly, and Mr. Cascio’s first name is the key to unlock the code)
3. People will not be planted with silicon chips
A Finnish sportswoman who has been caught with using doping to improve her skiing performance proposed that professional sports people be planted with silicon chips so that they can be monitored. Also at a dinner party recently in Vienna, I had a discussion with people who were afraid that soon we are all carrying electronics under our skin. Trust me, this will not happen. People in general are not willing to be cut open and to be planted with anything unless it’s a pacemaker or other life-saving device.
Instead, biological identification will get better so that people can be recognized by what they already have naturally, iris, thumbprint, DNA etc.
4. There will not be one major solution for energy
If anything, energy is heating up opinions now. People dig themselves into foxholes and choose their weapons. There is the “clean” oil/cole party, the nuclear party, the solar party, the wind party, and then some other really novel technologies that all have their small proponents.
The strongest voice that claims to have the ultimate solution, is the nuclear party. Proponents of nuclear energy say that it is clean, because it doesn’t emit CO2, and that building and maintaining the plants provide lots of jobs. Whenever someone uses jobs as an excuse to do something, my alarm bells go off. Nuclear has a lot of problems, some of which go tens of thousands of years into the future and are unsolved. Reasoning new nuclear plants with a 2009 recession is a bad idea. The oil party is also very powerful, and they claim that we are all so dependent on oil that we should take it easy and not rush into any hasty solutions, but continue to rely on the good oil as long as we can.
No, no, no. If you really take a step back, place yourself as an alien coming from Mars, and you will see the truth. The only viable energy source for this planet, which is not dependent on us humans screwing things up, comes from 150 000 000 km away and that’s the sun. Using solar energy as our one and only solution would be the only possibility in the long run.
But, because of all these parties that keep shouting at each others mouths for at least the next 20-30 years, we will not see one solution but many. And that’s a good thing, it gives us the chance to learn something. I hope we use that chance for learning instead of arguing.
5. Cars will not fly and people will not stop walking
You don’t hear this too often any more, but once in a while anyway. I was listening to a radio program the other day, talking about the future, and it did come up. Just tell me, why would cars fly? There are enough traffic accidents even now when they are on the ground and following roads with traffic rules, traffic lights and traffic signs. Can you imagine your 18 year old borrow dad’s flying car for the weekend? And what technology and fuel would these flying cars use? Will they have propellers like helicopters? That will take lot energy. What energy would they use? Oil based kerosene? Their own miniature nuke reactor, perhaps? No, this will not happen. When the airplanes finally find a sustainable energy source which will not pollute the atmosphere, flying vehicles may become smaller but never individual sized. Imagine a billion Indians flying to work in the morning.
One caller to the same program proposed that all traffic would be moved underground to allow for the nature to bloom upstairs. That’s a nice idea, but totally useless. If all traffic would be moved underground, the surface of the earth would collapse.
Also, many people seem to believe that in the future no one is walking any more. Let me tell you, that’s the past and not the future. USA built such an infrastructure and what happened? They got fat and dependent on oil. Unfortunately many countries copied the model, and the problem is now universal. Many cities in the US and elsewhere are re-building their walkways and charming downtown areas with cafes, bookshops and so on. Malls are history. Drive-in is history. If you want to see a prototype of a future city, go to one of those zero CO2 emission towns where all houses are self-heated and no cars allowed. That’s what’s going to happen.
By the way, the same 1950s sci-fi scenario included the idea that people in the future are eating food in the form of a pill. Need I say more (belch!).
6. The world will not become a Big Brother society
This triggered me today as well. The Pirate Bay party, which now has a rep in the EU parliament, is saying that enforcing copyright laws by using current technology will create a Big Brother like society, one like the former East Germany.
“The technology could be used to create a Big Brother society beyond our nightmares, where governments and corporations monitor every detail of our lives. In the former East Germany, the government needed tens of thousands of employees to keep track of the citizens using typewriters, pencils and index cards. Today a computer can do the same thing a million times faster, at the push of a button. There are many politicians who want to push that button.” Says the PB MP.
Show me one of those politicians, and I’ll show you a dead politician. The world is governed by a democratic process, where the people elect their leaders (give and take a few totalitarian areas). Show me one individual who would vote for a Big Brother society. History has shown that freedom and rights to choose will always prevail in the end. Look at Iraq, Iran, Russia, South-Africa, Congo, Argentina, East-Germany, and mainland China. Totalitarian state and dictatorship will always fail in the end. This will happen in Burma, Honduras, North-Korea, rest of China and elsewhere, too, just wait and see.
That's not to say that in the future no one will try to build a new East Germany, or that getting rid of dictators would be quick and easy, I'm just saying that it is not possible to brainwash everyone to follow a totalitarian leader. You can fool all of the people some time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all people all the time.
If anything, technology will speed up the freedom process and not reverse it. Look at #honduras, #iranelection, or #uighur, #urumqi in Twitter and you’ll know what I mean.
7. People will not live on the moon
People, if we destroy our planet we are dead. We are not relocating to the moon, Mars, or any other extra terrestrial site. We will be extinct.
There is no water or air in the moon. If we don't have the money to fix us clean air and clean water on this planet, a planet that is covered by water and surrounded by air, where would we get the money to fix those things from nothing on the moon. And when I say “money”, I should put it in quotes. Cleaning up our mess has nothing to with money, that’s just an excuse for some people (read: conservative politicians and dead-stuck corporate leaders) to avoid their responsibility.
Living on the moon, ain’t gonna happen.
8. There will be wars in the future, too
When people look into the future, some people see a Blade Runner like, dark and decadent urban failure. Others see a green paradise with no pollution, but flowers and white angels dancing around. This scenario also includes the idea that people will become smart enough to stop wars. Think again.
Why do people go into wars. It’s because they have possession that they want to defend, or they don’t have a possession but they want to get some. The only way for people to stop fighting with each other, is for everyone to give up their possession. They tried it in the Soviet Union, didn’t work. If you worked hard for something, you are not going to stand by when someone else comes and takes it from you. Also, there will always be people who think that they don’t need to work as hard as everyone else, but they could take what they want if they need it. Families stick together, villages stick together, and nations stick together. Together against “the others”.
Hopefully we’ll get smart and innovate in military technology so that wars will be different. Surely the digital side of it will become very important, countries will use online hijacking, stealing credentials and knocking over important lifelines. But there is no avoiding the physical warfare. How else would one country conquer fresh water or black soil, if not by marching over there and putting up a fence on the new border. The ugly things about today’s wars are civilian and environmental casualties, both during and after the war. Remove those, and you’ll have a sustainable warfare.
Here I have to admit that I’m not too optimistic. Even if some parties did take up sustainable warfare, the other party may still go into raping and murdering civilians, or seeding land mines here and there just to break the opponent and win the war. Maybe a Big Brother like United Nations would be in order after all. Hmmm …
9. People will not reproduce by cloning
The Island was a good movie, but that’s not how things will really go. The movie suggested that in the future, anyone who has enough money could grow a clone of themselves for spare parts. Surely bio medicine will advance, stem cell research will be a success with bone marrow transplants, cure for Parkinson disease, MS disease and different cancers. Also, artificial skin and artificial organic organs will become better and replace the mechanical limbs and organs. But they won’t happen by cloning entire humans, or growing entire limbs in labs as spare parts, just in case.
It is now allowed for sperm banks to reveal information about the donor. This has led to some people selecting the sperm or ovary based on the donor’s biological facts, or even their education or CV. This questionable method has not become very popular, and I have no fear that it would lead into a Third Reich type of society. The traditional way of making babies is just too much fun. Ever fallen in love with someone?
10. People won’t stop eating meat
I used to be very anti-hunting. I thought hunters were cruel people who don’t care for animals. Now I have made a full U-turn in this thinking. Instead, it is us who buy the 99 cent pork from sale who are the cruel ones. We don’t care for animals whose only reason for existing is to be a living food processing organ for us rich fatsos. Compared to the caged chicken, free rabbits and wild boars are quite happy creatures, even if they end up shot in the end.
Producing meat is a tremendous burden on earth. It’s not enough that cows eat the cereal and vegetables that we could have eaten, but they also fart too much. Eeew... There’s also something seriously wrong with our food production system.
Recently someone suggested that Finnish schools would have a meatless day (in Finland all school meals are provided by the public service). It was ruled impossible, because it would be more expensive to produce a non-meat dish, than to produce a meat dish. Get that. The reason is that the dishes come from big central kitchens that provide readily processed portions. Replacing this process by freshly made vegetable food would break the process. Ask Jamey Oliver how this is in the UK. O tempora o mores.
But people love their meat, what can you do. Well, one thing we could do is to raise the social acceptability of hunting and hunted meat, and make it less elite. We could turn some of the tree growing fields that we call forests (this is a joke, referring to what the almighty paper industry has done to the biodiversity in Finland) into natural reserve areas where people could buy hunting licenses, 99 cents each. This would become a hit among gamblers. You betcha!
If people began to hunt and prepare their meat all the way from the forest onto the plate, it would probably reduce some of the meat eating. At least it would bring people closer to the origin of the meat, and at the same time revitalize the natural diversity of environment. The future of eating will be shifting from cultivating meat back to cultivating land. From hunting a lost pea in a school lunch into hunting your meat in the forest. Grab some of those mushroom while you're out there.
Yum, that makes me hungry. I think I will take a chunk of moose out of the freezer for tonight.
1. Humanoid robots will not be taking care of children or elderly
Some sci-fi fans are obsessed with robots and jump up and down with joy every time there’s a prototype of a robot that looks like a human, can talk, and is designed to do human things like take care of elderly, or teach children at school. Now, place your right hand on your heart and give an honest answer: Would you be willing to send your 7 year old to a classroom with 50-100 other kids to be efficiently taught by a robot that looks like Ms. Elementary teacher, but is all electric circuits and wires? That’s what I thought, too.
Did the robot dog stop kids from having a real puppy? No it didn’t. It takes a real living furry puppy to do what puppies are meant to do. Equally, it takes a real living teacher or a caretaker to listen, understand and provide love for kids and old folks.
Robots are useful, and they will replace a lot of the mechanical work that people do. No human should be locked to a conveyor belt, or work in mines or any other hazardous work. That should and will be done by robots. This will free humans to be doing what is the human thing to do: To love and take care of one another.
2. People will not get more intelligent because of technology
There was a nice article today (thanks David) about how a super volcano Toba erupted 74,000 years ago and wiped out most people. The article claims that we are the offspring of the survivors, that’s why our DNA is so similar and why we are smarter than other primates. This may be so. But the article also suggests that a second wave of intelligence is rushing in, because of our ability to collect and analyze information.
“Our collective ability to gather, store and build upon knowledge — call it Google et al. — is creating You+, Jamais Cascio reasons. What we need now are better tools to analyze the information we have, he notes, and then we can move on to that higher primate we're bound to become.”
Does someone – a scientist – really believe that humans will evolve into a higher primate because we can spend our days online. Well good luck with that.
Instead, what will happen is that we will be able to make smarter choices, perhaps not destroy the planet’s environment, not kill civilians at war, to have clean water for all, and not end up with a pandemic that kills us all. But that doesn’t grow our brain any bigger, accelerate evolution, affect our DNA or make us any “higher primates”.
(Or perhaps this was a test to see if the story would fly, and Mr. Cascio’s first name is the key to unlock the code)
3. People will not be planted with silicon chips
A Finnish sportswoman who has been caught with using doping to improve her skiing performance proposed that professional sports people be planted with silicon chips so that they can be monitored. Also at a dinner party recently in Vienna, I had a discussion with people who were afraid that soon we are all carrying electronics under our skin. Trust me, this will not happen. People in general are not willing to be cut open and to be planted with anything unless it’s a pacemaker or other life-saving device.
Instead, biological identification will get better so that people can be recognized by what they already have naturally, iris, thumbprint, DNA etc.
4. There will not be one major solution for energy
If anything, energy is heating up opinions now. People dig themselves into foxholes and choose their weapons. There is the “clean” oil/cole party, the nuclear party, the solar party, the wind party, and then some other really novel technologies that all have their small proponents.
The strongest voice that claims to have the ultimate solution, is the nuclear party. Proponents of nuclear energy say that it is clean, because it doesn’t emit CO2, and that building and maintaining the plants provide lots of jobs. Whenever someone uses jobs as an excuse to do something, my alarm bells go off. Nuclear has a lot of problems, some of which go tens of thousands of years into the future and are unsolved. Reasoning new nuclear plants with a 2009 recession is a bad idea. The oil party is also very powerful, and they claim that we are all so dependent on oil that we should take it easy and not rush into any hasty solutions, but continue to rely on the good oil as long as we can.
No, no, no. If you really take a step back, place yourself as an alien coming from Mars, and you will see the truth. The only viable energy source for this planet, which is not dependent on us humans screwing things up, comes from 150 000 000 km away and that’s the sun. Using solar energy as our one and only solution would be the only possibility in the long run.
But, because of all these parties that keep shouting at each others mouths for at least the next 20-30 years, we will not see one solution but many. And that’s a good thing, it gives us the chance to learn something. I hope we use that chance for learning instead of arguing.
5. Cars will not fly and people will not stop walking
You don’t hear this too often any more, but once in a while anyway. I was listening to a radio program the other day, talking about the future, and it did come up. Just tell me, why would cars fly? There are enough traffic accidents even now when they are on the ground and following roads with traffic rules, traffic lights and traffic signs. Can you imagine your 18 year old borrow dad’s flying car for the weekend? And what technology and fuel would these flying cars use? Will they have propellers like helicopters? That will take lot energy. What energy would they use? Oil based kerosene? Their own miniature nuke reactor, perhaps? No, this will not happen. When the airplanes finally find a sustainable energy source which will not pollute the atmosphere, flying vehicles may become smaller but never individual sized. Imagine a billion Indians flying to work in the morning.
One caller to the same program proposed that all traffic would be moved underground to allow for the nature to bloom upstairs. That’s a nice idea, but totally useless. If all traffic would be moved underground, the surface of the earth would collapse.
Also, many people seem to believe that in the future no one is walking any more. Let me tell you, that’s the past and not the future. USA built such an infrastructure and what happened? They got fat and dependent on oil. Unfortunately many countries copied the model, and the problem is now universal. Many cities in the US and elsewhere are re-building their walkways and charming downtown areas with cafes, bookshops and so on. Malls are history. Drive-in is history. If you want to see a prototype of a future city, go to one of those zero CO2 emission towns where all houses are self-heated and no cars allowed. That’s what’s going to happen.
By the way, the same 1950s sci-fi scenario included the idea that people in the future are eating food in the form of a pill. Need I say more (belch!).
6. The world will not become a Big Brother society
This triggered me today as well. The Pirate Bay party, which now has a rep in the EU parliament, is saying that enforcing copyright laws by using current technology will create a Big Brother like society, one like the former East Germany.
“The technology could be used to create a Big Brother society beyond our nightmares, where governments and corporations monitor every detail of our lives. In the former East Germany, the government needed tens of thousands of employees to keep track of the citizens using typewriters, pencils and index cards. Today a computer can do the same thing a million times faster, at the push of a button. There are many politicians who want to push that button.” Says the PB MP.
Show me one of those politicians, and I’ll show you a dead politician. The world is governed by a democratic process, where the people elect their leaders (give and take a few totalitarian areas). Show me one individual who would vote for a Big Brother society. History has shown that freedom and rights to choose will always prevail in the end. Look at Iraq, Iran, Russia, South-Africa, Congo, Argentina, East-Germany, and mainland China. Totalitarian state and dictatorship will always fail in the end. This will happen in Burma, Honduras, North-Korea, rest of China and elsewhere, too, just wait and see.
That's not to say that in the future no one will try to build a new East Germany, or that getting rid of dictators would be quick and easy, I'm just saying that it is not possible to brainwash everyone to follow a totalitarian leader. You can fool all of the people some time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all people all the time.
If anything, technology will speed up the freedom process and not reverse it. Look at #honduras, #iranelection, or #uighur, #urumqi in Twitter and you’ll know what I mean.
7. People will not live on the moon
People, if we destroy our planet we are dead. We are not relocating to the moon, Mars, or any other extra terrestrial site. We will be extinct.
There is no water or air in the moon. If we don't have the money to fix us clean air and clean water on this planet, a planet that is covered by water and surrounded by air, where would we get the money to fix those things from nothing on the moon. And when I say “money”, I should put it in quotes. Cleaning up our mess has nothing to with money, that’s just an excuse for some people (read: conservative politicians and dead-stuck corporate leaders) to avoid their responsibility.
Living on the moon, ain’t gonna happen.
8. There will be wars in the future, too
When people look into the future, some people see a Blade Runner like, dark and decadent urban failure. Others see a green paradise with no pollution, but flowers and white angels dancing around. This scenario also includes the idea that people will become smart enough to stop wars. Think again.
Why do people go into wars. It’s because they have possession that they want to defend, or they don’t have a possession but they want to get some. The only way for people to stop fighting with each other, is for everyone to give up their possession. They tried it in the Soviet Union, didn’t work. If you worked hard for something, you are not going to stand by when someone else comes and takes it from you. Also, there will always be people who think that they don’t need to work as hard as everyone else, but they could take what they want if they need it. Families stick together, villages stick together, and nations stick together. Together against “the others”.
Hopefully we’ll get smart and innovate in military technology so that wars will be different. Surely the digital side of it will become very important, countries will use online hijacking, stealing credentials and knocking over important lifelines. But there is no avoiding the physical warfare. How else would one country conquer fresh water or black soil, if not by marching over there and putting up a fence on the new border. The ugly things about today’s wars are civilian and environmental casualties, both during and after the war. Remove those, and you’ll have a sustainable warfare.
Here I have to admit that I’m not too optimistic. Even if some parties did take up sustainable warfare, the other party may still go into raping and murdering civilians, or seeding land mines here and there just to break the opponent and win the war. Maybe a Big Brother like United Nations would be in order after all. Hmmm …
9. People will not reproduce by cloning
The Island was a good movie, but that’s not how things will really go. The movie suggested that in the future, anyone who has enough money could grow a clone of themselves for spare parts. Surely bio medicine will advance, stem cell research will be a success with bone marrow transplants, cure for Parkinson disease, MS disease and different cancers. Also, artificial skin and artificial organic organs will become better and replace the mechanical limbs and organs. But they won’t happen by cloning entire humans, or growing entire limbs in labs as spare parts, just in case.
It is now allowed for sperm banks to reveal information about the donor. This has led to some people selecting the sperm or ovary based on the donor’s biological facts, or even their education or CV. This questionable method has not become very popular, and I have no fear that it would lead into a Third Reich type of society. The traditional way of making babies is just too much fun. Ever fallen in love with someone?
10. People won’t stop eating meat
I used to be very anti-hunting. I thought hunters were cruel people who don’t care for animals. Now I have made a full U-turn in this thinking. Instead, it is us who buy the 99 cent pork from sale who are the cruel ones. We don’t care for animals whose only reason for existing is to be a living food processing organ for us rich fatsos. Compared to the caged chicken, free rabbits and wild boars are quite happy creatures, even if they end up shot in the end.
Producing meat is a tremendous burden on earth. It’s not enough that cows eat the cereal and vegetables that we could have eaten, but they also fart too much. Eeew... There’s also something seriously wrong with our food production system.
Recently someone suggested that Finnish schools would have a meatless day (in Finland all school meals are provided by the public service). It was ruled impossible, because it would be more expensive to produce a non-meat dish, than to produce a meat dish. Get that. The reason is that the dishes come from big central kitchens that provide readily processed portions. Replacing this process by freshly made vegetable food would break the process. Ask Jamey Oliver how this is in the UK. O tempora o mores.
But people love their meat, what can you do. Well, one thing we could do is to raise the social acceptability of hunting and hunted meat, and make it less elite. We could turn some of the tree growing fields that we call forests (this is a joke, referring to what the almighty paper industry has done to the biodiversity in Finland) into natural reserve areas where people could buy hunting licenses, 99 cents each. This would become a hit among gamblers. You betcha!
If people began to hunt and prepare their meat all the way from the forest onto the plate, it would probably reduce some of the meat eating. At least it would bring people closer to the origin of the meat, and at the same time revitalize the natural diversity of environment. The future of eating will be shifting from cultivating meat back to cultivating land. From hunting a lost pea in a school lunch into hunting your meat in the forest. Grab some of those mushroom while you're out there.
Yum, that makes me hungry. I think I will take a chunk of moose out of the freezer for tonight.
Posted by Petra S at 7/9/2009 1:19 PM 
Categories: Innovation stuff
Tags: Environment Innovation Human
Categories: Innovation stuff
Tags: Environment Innovation Human
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The strongest voice that claims to have the ultimate solution, is the nuclear party. Proponents of nuclear energy say that it is clean, because it doesn’t emit CO2
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